Rain No Problem for Today’s Guvnor Bet”

The Guvnor’s View: 3:30pm Haydock – Lyra Lea

I’ll tell you straight – Lyra Lea isn’t the finished article when it comes to breaking from the stalls. She’s been known to fluff the start, and last week at Lingfield she veered right out of the gates. Didn’t matter though – she still cruised home on the polytrack, winning with a fair bit in hand.

The handicapper has taken note, slapping on a 9lb rise, but for today she only has to carry a 6lb penalty for that success. More importantly, she’s no stranger to getting her toe in on soft ground, so if the heavens open at Haydock, that won’t ruffle her. PJ McDonald takes over in the saddle, with Lewis Edmunds on the sidelines.

Now, the one the market seems to love is Demetrius – but I’m not so sure. Seven furlongs on rain-softened ground? That could find him out. Yes, the headgear has sharpened him up – winning in a visor at Chelmsford and then in cheekpieces at Catterick – but he’s back in cheekpieces today and still has a bit to prove in these conditions.

For me, the bigger danger comes from Luzon Heights. Nicely bred, the ground should suit, and with Cieren Fallon booked, that’s a jockey change that catches the eye. Worth keeping an eye on the market for any confidence.

But all said and done – I’m siding with the filly who’s in form, proven on soft, and looks well capable of defying her penalty.

The Guvnor’s Bet: Lyra Lea – 4/1 with most firms