Midlands Value

The Guvnor’s back in business, and today we’re heading over to Uttoxeter for what looks a cracking renewal of the 3m Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle at 2:10. It’s a proper contest too – plenty of big names in the training ranks represented, and the sort of race that can trip up the unwary punter.

We’ve got depth here, no doubt about it. Paul Nicholls’ Keel Strand was on a bit of a roll earlier in the summer, only to come unstuck at this very track back in July. Connections have sensibly given him a break since, and with conditions looking set fair – good ground and a dry forecast – he’ll be popular in the market. Still, I’m leaning elsewhere.

My money – and recommendation – is on Gwash, trained by the ever-shrewd Fergal O’Brien. The gelding was desperately unlucky not to get his head in front last time out over this very course and distance.

Beaten only half a length, he looked all set to strike when a clumsy jump three out just stopped his momentum. Without that mistake, The Guvnor reckons he’d have gone very close indeed.

The handicapper nudged him up 3lbs for that effort, which could’ve been a concern, but O’Brien’s talented claimer Jack Hogan takes 3lbs off his back. In other words, we’re effectively running off the same mark as last time. That’s what you call a bit of balance in the books, and it tilts things nicely in our favour.

It’s also worth noting that Uttoxeter owes Gwash a slice of luck. Cast your mind back to May, when he was clear and cruising over 2m4f at this track, only to come down at the last. Horses don’t forget, and neither do punters – The Guvnor’s keeping faith that justice will finally be served.

Keel Strand has obvious claims, but a seven-week break can sometimes leave one needing the run. Plenty of others have bits and pieces of form, but when you weigh it all up, Gwash ticks the most boxes – proven at the track, still well treated, and carrying the momentum of a horse who deserves his day in the sun.

I’m siding with Gwash to put the record straight at Uttoxeter. The claim cancels out the rise, the ground is spot on, and he’s got unfinished business here. At around the current odds, he makes plenty of appeal as The Guvnor’s NAP of the day.

Recommendation: Gwash (NAP) – 2pts EW 2:10 Uttoxeter

With so many firms going 5/1 and paying 1/5th the odds for 4 places this really does look like a solid EW bet today.

Get involved, keep your stakes measured, and let’s cheer him home the right side of the post this time.

— The Guvnor 18+ Always Bet Responsibly