Laying Short-Priced Favourites: A Smart, Low-Risk Approach

In horse racing, favourites tend to grab all the attention—especially those with prices at or below 2.00 (Evens). It might seem like backing them is the safe bet, but actually, many experienced bettors prefer a different tactic: laying short-priced favourites.

So, what does laying a horse mean?

Basically, you're betting against it to win. If the horse doesn’t come first and ends up second, third, or further back, you win your lay bet. You can do this on betting exchanges such as Betfair, Matchbook, Smarkets & Betdaq.

Why is this a clever move?

Because it’s often less risky than you’d think. Here’s why:

Favourites Don’t Win That Often: Even at short prices, favourites win around 55–60% of the time. That means they lose or place in a good chunk of races. Those losses give you plenty of chances to lay.

Limits on Losses: When you lay at low odds, your maximum potential loss is usually quite manageable. For example, if you lay a £100 bet at 1.50, your cap is around £50 if the favourite wins, which is much more controlled than betting at bigger odds.

When should you consider laying a favourite?

Not every short-priced favourite is weak, but watch out for these signs:

Unfamiliar Conditions: If a horse is stepping up in distance, racing on a different surface, or at a new track, it might not be quite as solid as it looks.

Questionable Recent Form: If it’s only won against weaker horses lately, its chances might be overhyped.

Trainer or Jockey Slumps: Even the best connections have bad runs—so keep that in mind.

Market Hype: Sometimes odds get inflated because of popularity rather than actual form, creating potential lay opportunities.

Managing Your Risks

Laying favourites at short prices helps keep your risk in check, but discipline is still key. Don’t chase losses, only lay when you’ve got a solid reason, and keep your stakes sensible. Many successful bettors focus on consistent, small wins rather than trying for a big payout on every bet.

To Sum Up

Laying short-priced favourites can be a smart and pretty safe way to bet—if you know what to look for. Spotting when a favourite is overhyped and sticking to your rules can help you take advantage of the market’s overestimation.

UK Betting Edge has teamed up with A.I. Banker Bets™. They utilise Artificial Intelligence, in collaboration with Oxford University, to streamline the selection process. For a modest subscription fee, they choose the lays on your behalf.

From A.I. Banker Bets™: "These selections are short-priced favourites. We aren’t laying them because we think they won’t win — we’re laying them because we’ve identified value, i.e., they are underpriced horses."

"Take today’s winning lay (horse lost), Participle, as an example. We listed the selection at 1.37. It’s not that we thought it wouldn’t win — we just believed the true odds were closer to 1.80."

It’s about consistently laying these underpriced horses to generate long-term profits. A lot of our selections, on paper, are banker bets — hence why we called the service Banker Bets." Their track record is outstanding, and the results are evident. To learn more, visit their site by clicking the button below:

A.I. Banker Bets

A.I. Banker Bets